Tajikistan Adopts a 16-Year Strategy for Attracting Investments

The main goal is, obviously, to attract new investments, create jobs, diversify the economy, and build new businesses and industries.

WHAT IS IN THERE?

The strategy focuses on the following main areas:

Green Vision: Strategy aims to promote Tajikistan as a "green country" with a huge potential for renewable energy, especially from its vast hydropower resources. It also highlights that the country has large reserves of minerals like lithium and copper, which are essential for green technologies.

The strategy's decision to brand Tajikistan as a hub for "green investments" is a key strength. It recognizes that global capital is increasingly flowing toward sustainable projects. By leveraging the country's massive hydropower resources and minerals for the green transition, the plan creates a powerful and unique story for investors that goes beyond simple financial incentives. This makes Tajikistan a more attractive destination for a specific and influential group of investors.

Highlighting the country's main asset: Tajikistan has the eighth-largest hydropower potential in the world, holds 60% of Central Asia's total water resources, and is politically stable. It also notes a young, growing population and a strategic location as a potential transit hub.

The document correctly identifies the nation's key assets. It emphasizes that Tajikistan already has the foundation for its "green" brand: 98% of its electricity is generated from renewable sources, and it has an incredible hydropower potential that is 20 times larger than what is currently being used. This honest and detailed self-assessment is essential for building a credible investment plan.

Improving legal environment: The plan proposes improving the legal system to creating new support structures for investors, creating an "investment ombudsman" to protect investor rights, which could increase confidence.

The strategy proposes a wide range of policy improvements. These include simplifying business registration, reducing the number of government inspections, and introducing special "investment" visas to make it easier for foreign professionals to enter the country. By proposing reforms across multiple areas, the government signals its commitment to creating a stable and predictable business environment, which is what investors value most.

WHAT IS NOT THERE:

The plan is still a high-level policy statement, not a concrete plan of action. This seems its biggest weakness. Broad, ambitious language does not extend to explaining how to achieve the goals, when they will be completed, or who is responsible for them. The proposed solutions to the correctly identified real-world problems of today’s Tajikistan are not specific enough.

The plan seems to focus more on what needs to be done than on how. For instance, it says the government needs to "continue reforms" and "develop mechanisms" for public-private partnerships, but it doesn't provide a list of specific laws to be changed, who is in charge, or what the timeline is. This makes it very difficult for anyone - whether a government official or a potential investor - to understand the actual next steps.

There is a disconnect between the problems identified and the solutions proposed. For example, the plan correctly states that a winter electricity shortage is a major roadblock to attracting investment. However, the solution it offers is simply to "develop infrastructure" without a specific, funded plan to build the power plants or other infrastructure needed to solve the problem. The document also highlights issues like a weak transport network and low internet speeds but again offers vague solutions rather than a concrete, master plan for upgrading these critical areas.

The plan sets very ambitious financial goals, like increasing foreign direct investment from $459 million in 2024 to over $5 billion by 2040. So far economic analysis has not been provided to show how this massive increase will be achieved, especially given the challenges it identifies.

The strategy proposes creating new bodies like a national investment operator and an ombudsman. However, the document itself points out that "insufficient inter-agency cooperation" is already a major problem. The plan doesn't explain how these new institutions will overcome the existing bureaucracy, creating a risk that they will just add more layers of complexity instead of solving the problem. It lacks a clear, practical plan for how these new bodies will function and have the authority to get things done.

Key industries and problems:

Energy: The plan highlights the country's huge potential for hydropower. However, winter energy deficit needs yet to be balanced out with promoting large-scale energy exports through projects like CASA-1000.
Industry and Mining: The plan aims to shift from simply extracting raw materials to creating high-value finished products. However, is still required to make this happen. The document mentions that most foreign investment in this sector currently goes to mining, so a clear plan is needed to reverse this trend.
Transport and Logistics: The strategy correctly identifies that poor transport and logistics are a major barrier to trade and investment, noting it increases the cost of goods. This, however is addressed - so far – only with a wish list of potential investment areas, which puts the burden of planning and financing entirely on the investor.
Agriculture, Tourism, and ICT: there good opportunities are not matched with practical solutions for the problems. For example, the tourism, the country's beauty and safety need the fixing of the high cost of flights and the lack of flight routes. Similarly, it promotes the ICT sector but doesn't provide a concrete plan for improving the slow and unreliable internet service, which is a major barrier to digital development.